The Path To Mainstreaming LED Lighting December 28, 2009
Posted by Speaking Sustainability in Christmas lights, The Business.Tags: Home Depot, Osram, Philips, Philips Lighting, Sylvania
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With a flurry of year-end news about LED lighting, I can detect that we are at the start of a big upswing in the mainstream adoption of LED lighting. The press release wars are starting, leading lighting brands are putting more product on retail shelves and showcase installations are being promoted.
I’ve been writing this blog for over 2 years, and my intent has always been to review lighting products for use at home. When I started, I wrote about things like book lights and bulbs for Maglite flashlights, because that was all there was. But I knew these niche applications were important stepping stones and sources of revenues that would fund further R&D and product development to bring LEDs to mainstream. I believe that time is coming now.
Holiday lighting is one of the first real applications that I have seen, as I noted in this post. And in this NY Times blog post Home Depot is quoted noting a “triple-digit increase” in sales of LED holiday lights this year; it also notes that LEDs will account for about 25 – 50% of sales this year.
This forecast comes from a semi-conductor analyst company, iSuppli, which forecast a couple of weeks ago that the LED market will show 18% CAGR growth from now through 2013, to become a $14.6 billion market. They note that “LED light bulbs will address the residential and enterprise general illumination market in 2010.” Their report lists 17 applications for LEDs and I suspect the greater part of this growth is in applications like computer displays, televisions, mobile devices, etc.
But Siemens, owners of Osram-Sylvania, is also bullish on LED lights, and appears to be quoting this research in their recent press release. (On the other hand, this also appears to be a case of trying to put lipstick on the pig of the poor results of this division — they go to great pains to make the case that Osram is the second-largest maker of LEDs and it is not a stretch to say that they are betting on turning around this division based on the growth of LEDs). They also fielded their own survey which reported that 12% of consumers have tried LED lighting — seems a stretch unless consumers are aware that the light in their booklights, flashlights, and nightlights are LED.
But Sylvania is getting more aggressive in the LED market, being the provider for the lighting the the all-LED Star Market that opened recently in suburban Massachusetts. (A competitor I recently spoke with derided this as a “science experiment”, implying that Sylvania doesn’t offer the range of products that are used in the store. Perhaps — but the learning from this experience will give Sylvania a much-needed jumpstart to general illumination applications).
Not only does the lighting in the Star Market use all LEDs, but Sylvania used this opportunity to put some of their replacement bulbs on the shelves. To this point, they have limited their products to some niche items but it appears they are beginning to follow Philips’ retail entry at Home Depot.
2010 will see more press releases of showcase lighting installations and more products reaching the shelves. But I don’t foresee massive adoption in 2010 — next year will be the year of testing and waiting until the price/performance equation improves.
Interesting post, Jim. If 2010 isn’t the year for massive adoption for general illumination, do you think it will be 2011? Or do you think it will take the phase out of incandescents to reach mass LED adoption?
It will take lower prices and improved performance. But let’s also define “massive adoption” — I’m thinking of it as LED lighting beginning to take significant market share at retail, in commercial/institutional, and establishing a conversion market from existing lighting installations. 2011 is possible, if experiences with the limited products on the market in 2010 are positive. If buyer expectations are too high and are not met, it will delay the uptake.
Well put, ledguy. You’re probably right about buyer expectations. And it’s a shame, but sort of natural human behavior, that if buyers have one bad experience with a poorly made LED light they’ll write them all off.
Hi LEDguy, I’m glad to see someone else who is as excited with this technology as myself. 12 years ago, I bought a whole bunch of packs of LED’s from the local electronics store and my wife thought I was crazy when I told her I was planning on using a 12VDC supply and stringing up a bunch of series/ parallel combinations as Christmas lights. Our son was just born and it fell by the wayside. Looking back, I should have made the string of LED lights and got a patent on it.
Five years ago, I bought some 8-LED candelabra bulbs, but they were too dim. I proceeded to design my own set with superluminescent diodes I picked up from the dollar store, using 1 microfarad current limiting capacitors, full wave rectifiers and surge suppressing varistors. These ones were as bright as 25 watt bulbs, but my wife thought they looked ugly since they did not have proper housings and she didn’t let me use them.
Finally 5 years later, “Lights of America” has a 25 watt equivalent candelabra bulb which uses only 1.5 watts. They sell for $8.50 each at our local Wal Mart, or even better, I can pick up a 3-pack at Costco for $19.00. I have changed over all our chandeliers to the LED kind and my wife loves the appearance. Both stores also sell 40 watt equivalent vanity bulbs and floodlights which use about 3.5 watts. I replaced our downstairs restroom fluorescent tube with a fisture that holds 6 of these LED vanity lights and it’s incredibly bright. I have also installed them in other parts of the house including our outdoor street lantern. My New Year’s resolution is to have all the lighting in my house converted to LED before 2011.
Thanks for stopping by and for sharing your experiences! I understand the “wife approval factor” and I will shortly be blogging about my experience with one of the Philips bulbs that did not receive a WAF.
Keep an eye out for Sylvania bulbs — I have seen them now at one store but from what I read they will be getting more aggressive in rolling out consumer LED bulbs this year, including a 60-watt equivalent sometime this spring.
I have had a few failures with the LOA bulbs. They put out a decent amount of light for 1 1/2 watts but I have had them fail on me. See how they hold up for a couple of months before you buy more.
As a longtime advocate for Led lighting, I’m glad
consumers are getting informed.The use of SSL is why my house is illuminated economically.
My lighting wattage is at an average of 12 watts
per a lamp- most lamps I use are less than 10 watts
with average lumen output at around 50 lumens per a
watt. Little wonder my average electric bills are
around $37/montly for 4 people.
This is what LED lab at National Institute of Standards and Technology actually tests.
It’s going to be the cheap knock offs that are going to potentially hurt LED adoption. Many fail within a year or two, and have nowhere near the Lumens their incandescent or CFL counterparts have. However, I am not converned about the expectations of those that buy Philips Enduraled or any other similar brands.
People already have started using CFL’s so LED needs to be improved more. So LED needs to be more modified and designed properly.
Thanks for sharing your experience. Sometimes after led light are very useful for any person. More than 80% people use led lights in our home or office.